Modelling & Decision Support
Coral reefs and the people that
sediment and pollutants, and
depend on them are facing a
socio-economically through social
Working Group Members
multitude of global, regional
structures and regional economies,
Roger Bradbury,
and local problems including
it is essential that models include
Australian National University, Australia
climate change, overfishing and
both local- and regional-scale
dredging. These problems are
pascal perez,
phenomena.
difficult to solve mainly because
Australian National University,
The value of a regional model
Australia
ch Update
coral reefs are all interconnected.
is greatly enhanced if it can be
Craig Johnson,
The Coral Reef Targeted Research
readily adapted for diverse global
University of Tasmania, Australia
& Capacity Building for Management regions such as the Caribbean,
Wo
(CRTR) Modelling & Decision
the Indo-Pacific, and East Africa.
Porfirio Alino,
Support Working group believes
This requires a model structured
University of the philippines,
that when finding solutions to
to handle highly variable data
philippines
R
problems faced by coral reefs, coral quantity and quality, and dissimilar
Ernesto Arias,
king
reef managers and scientists must:
management questions and
Lab. Ecologia de Ecosistemas de
· Attack all problems
priorities.
Arrecifes Coralinos, Mexico
simultaneously;
Through its work, the Modelling
peter Campbell,
gR
· Understand how local problems
and Decision Support Working
Argonne National Laboratory, USA
affect global problems and
group is creating an integrated
Bohdan Durnota,
Resear
scientific understanding of the
o
vice versa;
Tjurunga Pty Ltd, Australia
way in which people interact with
U
· Understand how social and
coral reefs.
Rob Seymour,
p
economic problems affect

University College London, Uk
biological and physical
The Group's key objectives are to:
problems and vice versa;
1. Develop modelling resources to
The Coral Reef Targeted Research &
· Explore the effects of different
Capacity Building for Management
enable reef managers to develop 3. Facilitate access to relevant
Program (CRTR) is a leading
management strategies on all
scenarios for their own areas.
scientific and economic data
international coral reef research
problems; and
initiative that provides a coordinated
2. Better understand the links
over the internet.
approach to credible, factual and
· Allow managers to learn
scientifically-proven knowledge for
between local, regional and
The group's recent research
and adapt.
improved coral reef management.
global processes.
highlights are detailed below.
Modelling is an important
The CRTR Program is a proactive
research and capacity building
management technology that
partnership that aims to lay the
allows decision makers and reef
foundation in filling crucial knowledge
gaps in the core research areas of Coral
users to see the dynamics of
Bleaching, Connectivity, Coral Diseases,
the whole reef system. Models
Coral Restoration and Remediation,
Remote Sensing and Modeling and
help us to visualise potential reef
Decision Support.
futures under various management
scenarios, and to assess the trade-
Each of these research areas are
facilitated by Working Groups
offs that might result from the
underpinned by the skills of many of the
tension between utilisation and
world's leading coral reef researchers.
The CRTR also supports four Centers of
conservation of reefs.
Excellence in priority regions, serving as
important regional centers for building
There is a distinct lack of multi-
confidence and skills in research,
scale models for decision support
training and capacity building.
in management of coral reefs and
The CRTR Program is a partnership
associated policy development.
between the Global Environment
given that reef systems are
Facility, the World Bank, The University
of Queensland (Australia), the
interconnected across regions,
United States National Oceanic and
both biophysically through
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and
approximately 50 research institutes and
larval dispersal and transport of
other third parties around the world.
Modelling & Decision Support Working Group members, Merida, Mexico. Photo: Rollan Geronimo
July 2008
Product code: CRTR 010/2008

---

Biophysical models
Fieldwork
The group's development of
in the philippines, fieldwork has
biophysical models continues.
included socio-economic surveys
Work on the fundamental model
of four towns in the Lingayen gulf
structure to date has included
representing direct users of the
refinement of the deterministic
Bolinao-Anda reef complex. The
model; conversion of the
surveys were followed by two
discrete deterministic model to a
feedback workshops for Local
continuous model with differential
government officials, some of
equations; and continued
whom are already using the results
development of the stochastic
and recommendations.
Heron Island, southern Great Barrier Reef. Photo: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
ReefGame
The Modelling and Decision
Support Working group has
developed the next generation
of an agent-based participatory
modelling game ­ Reefgame.
This formed the basis of a
successful workshop at the
Marine Science institute's Bolinao
Marine Laboratory.
Attended by fishing families,
barangay captains and government
officials, the novelty of the process
resulted in greater sharing of
ideas and experiences by the
fishers compared to traditional
questionnaires.
These stakeholder workshops,
Gidi Levy
which describe and model how
Photo:
people behave, are a powerful way
to influence and change behaviour.
By including people in the models
Philippines.
they immediately become of
greater interest to management
and policy.

Apo Island,
Further Information
Modelling and Decision Support
Working Group
Healthy reef,
Chair: Prof. Roger Bradbury
Australian National University
model. A spatial extension to
In Mexico, the Group has
Email: roger@tjurunga.com
the fundamental model indicates
consolidated its database of coral
Co-Chair: Dr Pascal Perez
that boundary interactions do not
and fish for 11 sites along the
Australian National University
necessarily buffer a phase shift,
Email: pascal.perez@anu.edu.au
length of the MBRS. The data has
but rather they may strengthen the been analysed and a powerful
Project Executing Agency:
effect; and up to a threshold of
Coral Reef Targeted Research
tool empirically validated which
& Capacity Building for
interaction strength, a more healthy generates geomorphological
Management Program
Local fishing community participating in ReefGame,
reef patch (with higher grazing) may
C/- Centre for Marine Studies
classes from easily available imagery.
Bolinao, Philippines. Photo: Anne Dray
The University of Queensland
help improve coral cover.
St Lucia QLD 4072
Australia
Telephone: +61 7 3346 9942
Facsimile: +61 7 3365 4755
Email: info@gefcoral.org

---